Troop Pull Out of Syria by President Trump Does Not Sell Out Israel

 

President Trump has boldly moved towards Senator Rand Paul's non-interventionist foreign policy with his decision to pull troops out of Syria. As expected, the DC establishment is upended with pundits decrying the move and in this case calling it 'reckless'. I strongly agree with the President's decision to pull troops out of Syria (and Afghanistan). There was no Congressional approval for any military action in Syria and the U.S. presence there is arguably unconstitutional.

One of the President's critics foolishly declared that he is bad for Israel. Prior administrations have had a mixed relationship with Israel (military aid that comes with strings attached does not automatically make the U.S. a great friend of Israel). Conversely, President Trump has aligned the U.S. with Israel more so than any prior administration.

So, does this decision sell out Israel? Not at all.

According to U.S. News & World Report, Israel currently ranks as the 8th most powerful country in the world. In the past, U.S. officials (specifically the State Department) would constantly ask that Israel use 'restraint' in conflicts. Israel is more than capable of meeting its security needs and does not need a supervisor providing 'guidance'.

Most importantly, Israel's security is ultimately decided on from the highest power. As written in Devarim (Deuteronomy) 11:26-28:

'See! I give you today (a choice of) a blessing and a curse. The blessing, when you listen to the commandments of G-d your Lord, which I command you today. The curse, if you do not listen to the commandments of G-d your Lord, and you deviate from the path which I command you today, in order to follow other gods which you did not know.'

So, we learn that if Jews follow the commandments, they will be blessed and if they do not follow the commandments, they will be cursed. Israel's existence has been a testament of countless miracles. If more Jews understood the true source of their power (not the IDF, Mossad, etc.), there wouldn't need to be any concern over U.S. foreign policy.

Global Debt Bubble Set to Burst as Mass Awakening Will End Central Bank Control

The yellow vest (a.k.a. gilets jaunes) protests in France are a sign of a populace that has grown more discontent with their falling standard of living and who feel completely disconnected from their elected politicians. The protesters have a wide range of concerns (i.e. immigration, taxes, free trade, benefits, etc.) that do not neatly fit into the left-right paradigm. It also appears that display of anger is spreading throughout Europe as in Belgium:

A retired man told RTBF that he receives a pension of €1,350 a month. “I get it on the 23rd of the month. It’s now the 8th and after I’ve paid insurance, rent, energy bills – which cost €150 – I only have €200 left for living expenses,” he said.
...
One protester gestured to the European institutional buildings behind him while talking to a NBC Euronews reporter. “There, in ‘Europe’, they’re having fun, they’re laughing," he said. "The people who make the laws are the ones driving us further into the ground. We have empty pockets. We shouldn’t be called the ‘yellow vests’, but the ‘empty pockets’.”

I outlined how the current economic system is not working well for 35% - 40% of Americans in my previous article. I view central banks, especially the Federal Reserve (FED), as a large part of the problem. For a more detailed history and analysis, I highly recommend the book 'The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve' written by G. Edward Griffin. Former Congressman Dr. Ron Paul called it 'a superb analysis deserving serious attention by all Americans'. I unequivocally reject critics who smear the book as 'conspiracy theory' and scurrilously attempt to demonize anyone who engages in critical thinking. Just because the FED website ends in .gov does not make it a government institution. The FED is a private corporation and as federal as Federal Express. For anyone who thinks the FED knows exactly what it is doing, recent remarks from Vice Chairman Richard Clarida's about how the FED Chairman is 'in a darkroom' would probably not inspire confidence.
While it is unclear what direction the protests will take, the Europeans appear to be going through a mass awakening, similar to the one in the U.S. It would likely impede any central bank from bailouts in the near future.

A few points that I want to reiterate:

• The era of central banking (FED's inception was in 1913) has been marked by war (WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, etc.) and numerous regime changes (courtesy of the CIA).
• There is no way the U.S. can consider itself a 'free' country when the ultimate power remains embedded with a cadre of bankers.
• The era of central banking is coming to an end as the FED will either be either dissolved, [restructured] or phased out.

Central Banks Face Math Problem

The world is addicted to cheap credit, the FED rate increases are hurting the economy, U.S. corporations are under duress and U.S. debt continues to explode. One may ask how I could be so confident in my assessment that the existing fiat currency system will end. My answer is very simple - basic math. I previously warned about the massive risk of derivatives to the financial system and detailed how the debt (now at $21.87 trillion) puts the solvency of the U.S. into question. CNBC reported last month how U.S. companies are carrying a $9 trillion debt load (86% higher than 2007). Analysts worry that companies teetering between investment grade and junk status could cause market trouble should their standing deteriorate. Bloomberg just reported how global debt hit a record $184 trillion last year, equivalent to more than $86,000 per person. Central banks tried to solve the 2008 financial crises by lowering interest rates and adding more debt. The original debt was mostly not written off and an inevitable crisis was simply deferred.
Interestingly, Mike Maloney put out a recent video on the 'financialization of government' where there exists strong correlation between the stock market and tax revenues. If the stock market does not do well, the FED must print money to lift stock markets to get enough revenues. This dangerous predicament approaches Ponzi scheme conditions.

There have been a couple of dramatic updates in recent weeks.

Update #1 – Closing Days of the Petrodollar

The petrodollar system (in effect since the 1970s) is the primary reason the U.S. dollar is still the world's reserve currency. Oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia do not sell their oil in currencies other than U.S. dollars. In recent years, there have been senseless wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria to protect the petrodollar. Without this agreement, the U.S. dollar would likely lose its role as the global reserve currency over time. China has made serious efforts to assert hegemony in the Middle East and in March introduced oil futures contracts priced in Chinese yuan. These contracts have achieved a 16% share of the global market and reached a pace of expansion termed as 'explosive'. The repercussions of Saudi Arabia breaking ties with the U.S. and moving closer to China are unknown but potentially volatile. The recent vote by the Senate to end U.S. support for the Saudi war in Yemen could hasten this break. Stunningly, a new report claimed the U.S. has become a net oil exporter for the first time in 75 years. While this may have been slightly misleading, the trend towards energy independence for the U.S. could render the petrodollar system obsolete and irrelevant in a few years.

Update #2 – U.S. Has Gold

In 2015, President Trump (then a private citizen) was asked if he could envision a scenario where the U.S. could go back to a gold standard. He had some interesting comments:

“In some ways, I like the gold standard and there is something very nice about it but you have to go back at the right time… We used to have a very solid country because it was based on a gold standard for it. We do not have that anymore. There is something very nice about the concept of that. It would be very hard to do at this point and one of the problems is we do not have the gold. Other places have the gold.”

According to some sources (which will be covered in a future post), the U.S. now has the gold.

Gold Standard

It is somewhat difficult to envision how a gold standard would work in today’s digital economy. Last year, former FED Chairman Greenspan confirmed its historic value:

"The gold standard was operating at its peak in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, a period of extraordinary global prosperity, characterized by firming productivity growth and very little inflation.
But today, there is a widespread view that the 19th century gold standard didn’t work. I think that’s like wearing the wrong size shoes and saying the shoes are uncomfortable! It wasn’t the gold standard that failed; it was politics."

Gold has played a part in policy even after Nixon closed the gold window and broke up the Bretton Woods system in 1971. According to this Forbes article, a panic occurred between 2011-2012 and to prevent a further decline in the dollar’s value there was probably ‘financial market manipulation at an unprecedented level’.
According to another Forbes article, ‘having a gold-linked currency made the selling of bonds, or equities, also known as international capital flows, much more attractive. The great era of the worldwide gold standard, in 1870-1910, was a time of internationalization, free movement of capital, and high levels of investment in emerging markets.’. As the U.S. trade deficit jumped to a 10-year high in October, it is unclear how the U.S. could maintain this imbalance without losing all its gold. It would be prudent U.S. policy to reduce its trade deficit prior to implementing any sort of gold standard.

Cryptocurrency Future

I received a few humorous personal attacks in my last article where I merely suggested that cryptocurrencies could provide an 'unknown path with the possibility of a better future'. I believe the future is promising for blockchain technology. No one can say with certainty that Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency will replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. Several cryptocurrencies have dedicated development teams, miners and advocates that represents a kind of community. But, as evidenced by the Bitcoin Cash war, individuals take actions that do not always represent the community’s best interest. Regardless, an infrastructure is being built to attempt to coexist with (if not supplant) the existing monetary system. The upcoming January 3 Bitcoin Proof of Keys day to declare ‘monetary sovereignty’ should be watched.

Summary

• The global debt bubble is on track to burst
• The mass awakening in Europe (in addition to the U.S.) will impede any central bank bailouts
• Higher U.S. energy production could render the petrodollar system obsolete
• A gold standard is the most readily available alternative to the system of central banking but with the risk to the U.S due to excessive trade deficits
• Cryptocurrencies hold promise but are not ready at this time to replace the system of central banking

Future Developments

I certainly would never pick a date for any sort of financial crisis nor offer financial advice. But Internet entrepreneur and political activist Kim Dotcom does offer somewhat provocative advice via this tweet. I guess anyone with capital can’t say they haven’t been warned. I completely understand how many readers may have difficulty coming to terms with such radical changes to our monetary system. People have been literally brainwashed into thinking the FED acts as some benevolent force for the common person’s best interest. Sorry, bankers at Goldman Sachs are not ‘doing G-d’s work’.

There is unfortunately a large entrenched establishment intent on maintaining the status quo. As Upton Sinclair said, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!". I do think there will be serious displacements in the workforce. I would guess that the banking, media/entertainment, and defense contractor industries along with the political bureaucracy in Washington DC would be adversely impacted. Many employees will need to transition to other areas of work. Since I do not endorse wealth confiscation (aside from extreme cases), I do foresee a problem. How do the estimated 35% - 40% of Americans (referenced earlier) who have hardly any savings obtain access to capital? I am sure there is a great plan out there.

Cryptocurrencies in Focus as Trump Plan to End the FED Activated

President Trump has drawn intense criticism for disparaging comments directed towards the Federal Reserve Bank (FED). Defenders of the FED cite its role as an independent entity that should not be mixed with politics. I could not disagree more with this argument as there are a multitude of reasons for shutting down the FED. Central banks, like the FED, exert unwarranted control over the money supply (which does not benefit the average American). Here is an example of fractional reserve banking, facilitated by the existing system, leading  to the creation of money out of thin air:

'Since 97 percent of fiat currency is loaned into existence by commercial banks creating loans through the fractional reserve banking process, the money supply continues to grow. Not only can CBs [commercial banks] create fiat currency from nothing, but they can buy U.S. government debt with that money and keep the interest to make a risk-free profit, which even adds to the CBs’ capital.'

The middle class in the U.S. has been negatively impacted by faulty monetary policy for decades. From 2008 to 2016, near 0% interest rates hurt savers the most. Meek job growth was coupled with rising asset prices like real estate. Americans that could not keep up with paying for basic needs (groceries, rent, etc.) were forced into debt. Some evidence of the dire circumstances facing a great segment of Americans:

• According to a FED report, about 40 percent of adults in the U.S. said that if faced with a $400 unexpected expense, they would either not be able to pay it or would do so by selling something or borrowing money
• Almost 1 in 3 U.S. households have challenges paying energy bills
• About 40% of the American middle class face poverty in retirement
• 1 in 3 Americans have hardly any retirement savings
• Those over 65 have been filing for bankruptcy in droves
• Health spending per capita in the U.S. increased nearly 29 fold in the past 40 years, outpacing the growth of the economy

Whether one supports the FED or not, clearly, the current system is not working well for 35% - 40% of Americans (many of which represent the Trump base). Further education and job training may help mitigate the circumstances for some but would in no way fix the underlying problem. A radical change (not towards socialism) to the current system of central banking in the U.S. is required. President Trump's experience and unpredictable, combative style make him the ideal person to enact this radical change. The FED (via rate increases) is actually a partner in the strategy to defeat China economically that has yielded encouraging results. So, the President's recent comments that the FED is 'crazy', raising rates 'too fast' and his 'biggest threat' are somewhat confusing. In reality, these remarks signal the closing stage of an ongoing war against the financial-media-military industrial complex (which includes the FED). It is a precursor to the President's plan to set up the FED and blame them for any sort of economic decline. I outlined this in January of 2017:

I believe Mr. Trump will try to push through all of his economic programs on the assumption that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low and continue to print massive amounts of dollars as needed (they did it for Obama, right). If the Federal Reserve obliges then great - infrastructure is restored, the military is strengthened, taxes are cut - all with printed dollars at no cost and limited inflation!! Well, unfortunately, there is virtually ZERO chance of this happening. China will no longer be allowed to provide short term support at the expense of losing strategic assets (see here). The massive size of the federal debt (see here) and ongoing deficits will make these policies impossible to implement.
Which brings us to Plan B (which is really the only plan) - Blame the Federal Reserve. Trump can say he tried to get his plan through but didn't get the support of the Federal Reserve. He can then claim that we need a 'new system' in place. That is where some kind of gold standard will come into play.
So, what happens if there is some kind of major financial crisis (i.e. Deutsche Bank, Chinese banks, etc) during his term. Same thing - Blame the Federal Reserve. Do you really think Donald Trump is going to protect the banks that he ran against??

The President has progressed towards meeting my criteria to be a successful president. The three conditions include preventing a world war, ending the FED and draining the swamp by rooting out corruption in government. His efforts to expose and defeat the deep state are commendable. But, to dispel any notion of 'hero worship', the President is just a guy from Queens (like myself) who happens to have a lot of money (unlike myself) and who should not receive any sort of special treatment. Suggested policies like the privatization of spying require greater scrutiny. The U.S. does not need to trade one deep state for another one.

So, once the FED is dissolved, restructured or phased out, the main question is what system will replace it (or co-exist with it). At the time of my original post, I assumed that gold would be the most likely replacement. Now, cryptocurrencies have been added as a potential option. We are seeing a new paradigm as evidenced in countries that have a currency in danger of devaluation (an official lowering of the value of a country's currency within a fixed exchange rate system). In the past, people would line up at a currency exchange center to exchange their local currency for a more stable one (i.e. USD, EUR). Now, people can also go online, open an account on a cryptocurrency exchange and buy Bitcoin. Similarly, depositors are no longer vulnerable to 'haircuts' like those in Cyprus who lost 47.5% of their savings exceeding 100,000 euros back in 2013. We are seeing instances of greater implementation of cryptocurrencies in economically troubled regions like Venezuela (Dash) and Iran  (Bitcoin). Cryptocurrencies may represent an even greater threat to ruling governments (and their central bank enablers) than gold since they are more difficult to confiscate. Still, we have not yet seen mass adoption to further validate them as a viable means of exchange.

For those of you who are still hopelessly negative about cryptocurrencies, I would refer you to a statement made to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee by J. Christopher Giancarlo, Chairman, Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

'We are entering a new digital era in world financial markets. As we saw with the development of the Internet, we cannot put the technology genie back in the bottle. Virtual currencies mark a paradigm shift in how we think about payments, traditional financial processes, and engaging in economic activity. Ignoring these developments will not make them go away, nor is it a responsible regulatory response. The evolution of these assets, their volatility, and the interest they attract from a rising global millennial population demand serious examination.'

For years, the precious metals markets have been subjected to manipulation as exemplified by the Deutsche Bank settlement. We still often see obvious examples of this via futures trading on the COMEX. I previously asserted that Wall Street had limited resources for manipulating cryptocurrencies. Unfortunately, we are seeing hints of market rigging in the exchanges. When the crypto exchange BitMEX performed scheduled maintenance on its trading engine, the weight of shorts were alleviated off the shoulders of the crypto market and Bitcoin saw an immediate surge of buying volume, rising from $6,450 to $6,720 within a minute. Also, popular exchange Coinbase, was recently found to have the highest level of own trading. [Own trading is also called proprietary trading and defines a situation where an exchange trades against the sell orders. In other words, the crypto exchange buys instead of connecting sellers and buyers.] Exchanges like these are indirectly suppressing the price of Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) and creating even more market distortions. Industry success vitally depends on overcoming this manipulation.

Bloomberg highlighted three potential scenarios for Bitcoin:

• No. 1. Bitcoin Triumph: Bitcoin replaces the dollar (and probably other fiat currencies as well) as the economy’s main unit of exchange. People buy pizzas, finance their mortgages and pay their rent in Bitcoin.
• No. 2. Bitcoin as Gold: Fiat currency remains the main unit of exchange everywhere except in a few extremely dysfunctional economies like Venezuela’s. But Bitcoin’s market capitalization remains substantial, and it rises in value over time, occasionally experiencing large bubbles and crashes.
• No. 3. Bitcoin Bust: Bitcoin is abandoned, crashing relative to the dollar and never being useful as a payment method for daily necessities.

In my opinion, Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies in general) is currently positioned at scenario #2. Scenario #3 does not appear likely and scenario #1 will require more time for the technology to improve. Remember that in the late 1990s, transfer rates of an Internet connection were nowhere near where they are today. In the near term, another price spike could help defuse the massive U.S. debt bomb and create a wealth effect to support the economy. Tom Lee, Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, previously estimated a $25 billion windfall in capital gains tax revenue for the U.S. government in 2017.

The U.S. dollar is a terrible currency. But, the one caveat is that most (if not all) other countries have currencies that are worse! According to the World Economic Forum, the U.S. is now ranked as the world's most competitive economy for the first time since 2008. The rise of interest rates by the FED has hurt emerging market economies far more than the U.S. Even European banks have significant exposure to emerging market debt. There have been rumblings that dollar credit will seize up globally and unleash a 'derivatives volcano'. So, it is unclear when (if at all) this ongoing global currency reset will impact the U.S.

One thing is 100% certain, the existing fiat system is doomed and no country will ever be able to  effectively devalue its currency (and prevent hyperinflation) with options like Bitcoin available. Even more important - there is no way the U.S. can consider itself a 'free' country when the ultimate power remains embedded with a cadre of bankers. The use of cryptocurrencies reinstates power to the individual in place of the state. Ultimately, there will be a choice for Americans - accept the status quo or take an unknown path with the possibility of a better future.

Tariffs, Tax Cuts and the FED – The US Strategy to Defeat China

The current trade war underscores China’s role as the number one geopolitical competitor to the U.S. The Trump administration, with the support of the Federal Reserve Bank (FED), has embarked on a plan to economically defeat China. Back in April, President Trump could not deny that in the midst of a trade war that ‘there won't be a little pain’ but predicted the U.S. will ‘have a much stronger country when we are finished’. But, at a rally last week in Montana, President Trump confidently stated ‘The war was lost on trade many years ago... but now we're gonna win it and because we have all the cards’. This was somewhat puzzling as China has been slowly devaluing the yuan over the past two months and has withheld implementing its biggest card (the sale of its U.S. treasury holdings).

Tariffs
Last year, the U.S. posted a $375.6 billion deficit in goods with China with a large segment due to computer and electronics imports. In addition, an often-overlooked cause of this trade deficit is the manner in which China acquired its technology. A recent internal investigation found Chinese theft of American intellectual property costing between $225 billion and $600 billion annually. American trade officials cited the Chinese government’s method for acquiring valuable trade secrets as motivation for additional tariffs. The NY Times outlined how China stole designs from Micron Technology to enable it to build a $5.7 billion microchip factory. President Trump has effectively stopped prior administration’s ‘sellout’ policy of allowing Chinese purchases of strategic U.S. assets. While the Chinese government currently owns approximately $1.18 trillion of U.S. treasuries, any chance to swap this debt to equity and effectively colonize the U.S. is virtually zero.

Tax Cuts
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 signed into law by President Trump last December has met optimistic expectations as revenues from federal income taxes were $76 billion higher in the first half of this year, compared with the first half of 2017. It may be why President Trump recently hinted at a second phase of tax cuts that would involve a further reduction in the U.S. corporate tax rate and more stimulus for the middle class. One of the consequences of this tax cut have been greater budget deficits. While undoubtedly a long-term concern, the short-term results have yielded great benefits.

The FED
Large budget deficits, a trade war with China are being coordinated with the policies of the Federal Reserve. As summarized by a report from Palisade Research:

• The always-rapidly-growing U.S. deficit requires constant funding from foreigners. But with the Federal Reserve raising rates and unwinding their balance sheet through Quantitative Tightening (QT) – meaning they’re sucking money out of the banking system.

• These two situations are creating the shortage abroad. The U.S. Treasury’s soaking up more dollars at a time when the Fed is sucking capital out of the economy.

• Not to[o] mention the strengthening dollar and higher short-term yields are making it more difficult for foreigners to borrow in dollars. Especially at a time when Emerging Market’s are imploding.

Clearly, the Trump administration views China as a greater threat to US interests than the Federal Reserve Bank at this time. As a candidate, President Trump had harsh words for Wall Street such as ‘I know Wall Street. I know the people on Wall Street.... I’m not going to let Wall Street get away with murder. Wall Street has caused tremendous problems for us.’ and ‘I don’t care about the Wall Street guys... I’m not taking any of their money.’. He even tweeted about the importance of auditing the FED. To date, his administration has not matched his prior rhetoric as they openly sided with banks and waived punishment over prior crimes. While some would question any type of coordination with a central bank, the President obviously does not share any such rigid ideology to constrain him. Still, alliances can be transitory and there is nothing to preclude the Trump administration from shifting policy at a later date.

China’s Options
We learned a few weeks ago that in fact Russia sold off half of their U.S. treasury holdings in the month of April. This coincided with a spike of 35 basis points on 10-year treasury bond yields. Perhaps, this was a test in preparation for a larger future sell-off. A treasury sale by the Chinese government could potentially have a devastating impact on the U.S. economy. Note that seven out of nine previous yield curve inversions have preceded a recession.

While China has launched the heavily anticipated yuan oil futures contract, it has not been implemented by Saudi Arabia as of yet, thereby delaying the death of the petrodollar.

Conclusion
So, the immediate goal for the U.S. is to starve China of US dollars until it makes satisfactory concessions. There have been reports of China’s economy slowing. Historically, the initiation of trade wars is bad economic policy. However, this unconventional strategy may be the only way for the U.S. to economically defeat China.
If this plan does not work as well as the President thinks it will, it could spur more people to question the current system of debt and centralized banking. The answer to what replaces the current system is anyone’s guess.

Must Watch Video: Q - The Plan To Save The World

I highly recommend watching this amazing video by Joe Masepoes from his YouTube channel.

The content in the video is verified by a number of my prior posts listed here:

Was 9/11 An Inside Job? - 8/29/16
Throwing a Flag on the Central Banks: Global Loss of Yardage! - 9/19/16
Trump's JFK Moment - 10/16/16
Conspiracy Theorists are Vindicated - Shadow Government Proven True - 10/19/16
The Clinton 'Crime Family' is on the Verge of Collapse - 10/31/16
Donald Trump Will Stop the Sellout of America to China - 11/11/16
Listen To Big Joe and Unite America - 1/30/17
MSM Acknowledges Existence of Deep State - 2/3/17
President Trump Is Not Acting Weak Towards Russia but Is Fighting the Deep State - 2/7/17
President Trump Will Drain The Swamp (or die trying) - 2/13/17
Trump U-turn - Defies the Deep State, Engages in Epic Battle to Drain the Swamp and Avoid Nixon's Fate - 5/14/17
From JFK to Trump - The End of the Deep State and a New Path Forward - 10/16/17
President Trump Aligns US with Israel as the Great Awakening Arrives - 12/27/17
QAnon Links NYPD Detective Familia to Insurance File - 5/15/18
Parashat Nasso - The Spiritual War - 5/25/18

Parashat Nasso - The Spiritual War

In Parashat Nasso, we learn of the importance of teshuva (repentance). The Rambam writes that if a person intentionally or unintentionally transgresses any of the mitzvot of the Torah (either a positive command or a prohibition), they are required to verbally confess before H-shem. As found in the book of Bamidbar (Numbers), Chapter 5, verse 6, the phrase לִמְעֹל מַעַל (Lim-ol Ma-al) Ba’H-shem means to act treacherously against H-Shem. In addition, we can interpret those words as trespassing or stealing from H-shem.

How is this possible? According to our sages, when each Jewish child is born, an angel makes them swear that they will be a tzadik (righteous person). So, during a person’s life, every time they commit an aveira (sin), they are breaking the vow and therefore in violation of that oath. We can infer that his/her body does not belong to themselves but to H-shem for the purpose of doing mitzvot. If a Jew commits an aveira, they are therefore obligated to perform teshuva.

One verse discusses how in a similar manner to the thief’s transgression against H-shem, a wife transgresses against her husband. In verse 12, the phrase וּמָעֲלָה בוֹ מָעַל (Uma-ala Vo Ma’al) refers to this. From here, we learn of the sotah, a suspected adulteress who was seen going into seclusion with another man despite a warning. As part of the process to determine if she is guilty of the aveira, the woman (who denies any impropriety) is brought to the Temple and drinks a cup of holy water. If she indeed willingly committed adultery, she explodes. If she is unharmed by the water, she is cleared of any suspicion.

The next verse discusses the nazir, a person that abstains from wine and grape products, allows their hair to grow, and who may not come in contact with a human corpse. The connection between the sotah and the nazir is apparent. Our sages stated that one who saw the sotah explode should become a nazir, even if they were distraught. This witness would have an understanding that the event may have been triggered by overindulgence. By becoming a nazir and taking on the restrictions for 30 days, he created a protection for himself against that possibility. He also took on certain holiness and enhanced his spiritual character.

Since we don’t have the ceremony of the sotah today, one may ask how we can apply the lessons from the Torah. Years ago, the primary cause of the indiscretion may have been wine. Today, there are vastly different influences. While ongoing political and economic wars are relevant, perhaps the most important war is one that is spiritual in nature. The media and entertainment industry have been incredibly successful in polluting culture, destroying souls and discouraging any sort of critical thinking. A morally bankrupt society that glorifies those in the entertainment industry isn’t one that can sustain itself. Although I am still hopeful that this glorification will end, our society at large does not clearly comprehend that they are engaged in this war. For if they were to understand, this war could easily be won. Like the nazir, we can be extra vigilant to protect ourselves against these negative forces and look past what are merely distractions. Instead of pointing fingers at others, we should first point them to ourselves.

Q-Anon Links NYPD Detective Familia to Insurance File

In a New Era of Peace, the US and Israel Can Resolve the Iran Problem

The recent summit between North Korea and South Korea was as much historic as it was surreal. After 65 years in a state of war, both leaders agreed to work together to ‘denuclearize’ the Korean peninsula, potentially heralding a ‘new era of peace’. Fortunately, it looks doubtful that a forecast by Rabbi Nachmani (23 years ago) of an end of days war initiated by North Korea will occur.

We learn from our sages that Moshe Rabbenu (Moses) was the transmitter of G‑d's word, the Torah, which is known as truth. But, his brother Aaron HaCohen was focused on bringing peace between husband / wife, friends, nations, etc. He would even ‘bend the truth’ if it meant achieving constructive outcomes. We also learn that Avraham Avinu was known for his kindness whereas his son Yitzchak Avinu was known for strength / rigidness in following commandments. These concepts represent the different paths toward conflict resolution. While both paths were tried with the Koreas, we can optimistically assess that peace triumphed over truth and kindness over rigidity for the greater benefit of world civilization.

Conversely, tensions between Israel and Iran have risen to new heights and appear headed toward resolution via a different path. Israel has taken aggressive measures to thwart the Iranian presence in Syria. Over the weekend, Israel bombed a munitions facility in Syria, killing Iranians. Also, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu dramatically asserted earlier today that the Iranian government lied for years about its nuclear program which was not solely intended for peaceful purposes. Interestingly, it is unclear how Israel fared against the much-heralded Russian S-300 air defense system. Either Israel had a side agreement with Russia to hold back its use or Israel has developed a way to neutralize the capabilities of the system.

Iran Background

The Iranian regime can hardly be described as a flourishing democracy. The political dynamics pit a middle class who want less religious restrictions and more economic opportunity against a poorer class who are more religiously inclined. The leadership in Iran holds what amount to mock elections to give the population the illusion of democracy while the mullahs hold the power. Unfortunately, as of today, the divergent economic and religious interests in Iranian society are too wide to allow both sides to team up and overthrow the regime.

Although most people are familiar with the theocratic divide between Sunnis and Shiites, an even more relevant one is between Arabs and Persians. Deeply rooted prejudices exist as many Persians view Arabs as having a lower status in society. Iranians widely believe that their government should not spend money on Hamas or Hezbollah as they have absolutely no interest in the Arab Israeli conflict.

US – Israel Relations

President Trump was elected on a mandate to forge a new foreign policy direction away from building up other nations at the expense of US interests. During his inauguration, he stated the US would ‘seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world’ and ‘not seek to impose our way of life on anyone’. While the US will not initiate any kind of Iranian invasion via military force, it has strongly allied itself with Israel. The threat of annihilation to South Korea from North Korea was not acceptable and can be applied similarly. Israel should not be expected to live in fear of an Iran that intrudes towards its borders and funds terrorist groups. Regrettably, a new US administration has not swayed the mullahs attitude toward Israel or the US. Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, who is the commander of foreign operations for Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, even refused to open a letter from then CIA Director Mike Pompeo saying, 'I will not take your letter nor read it and I have nothing to say to these people'.

As we approach the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem, we can conclude that President Trump has been a strong supporter of Israel. His latest moves elevating Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State and John Bolton as National Security Advisor, both very pro-Israel, reinforce this fact. While a deal maker by trade, President Trump does realize that one cannot negotiate with entities that are sworn to its destruction.

Conclusion

In summary, we have a US administration that strongly supports Israel lined up against a fanatical Iranian theocracy that does not act in the best interests of its citizens. While close monitoring of the Iranian power structure is required, there appear to be cracks in the regime. There was an unverified report over the weekend that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may remove General Soleimani over differences between him and other commanders. Signs of a potential currency crisis have been evident in recent weeks. This would have dire consequences on the Iranian economy as further economic stress would likely cause businesses to ‘pack up and leave again’.

Generally, I do not put much thought in Israel's security. As we know, it is a complete miracle that Israel exists as a nation. Israel has overcome insurmountable odds in numerous wars over thousands of years. There are long standing rumors that Israeli wars (of the past 70 years) are never taught at West Point. The mullahs in Iran will soon come to that realization. If the mullahs had an ounce of intelligence, they would realize what they are up against and change course. If Israel's destruction was their true goal, their best move would be make peace with Israel and pray to Allah that the Jews forsake their G-d. Fortunately, that won’t happen any time soon.

Americans Acknowledge Deep State as Public Disclosure of Crimes Looms

A stunning poll from Monmouth University revealed how a clear majority of Americans have woken up to the concept of a ‘deep state’. 

‘Few Americans (13%) are very familiar with the term “Deep State;” another 24% are somewhat familiar, while 63% say they are not familiar with this term. However, when the term is described as a group of unelected government and military officials who secretly manipulate or direct national policy, nearly 3-in-4 (74%) say they believe this type of apparatus exists in Washington. This includes 27% who say it definitely exists and 47% who say it probably exists. Only 1-in-5 say it does not exist (16% probably not and 5% definitely not).’ 

This poll validates the genuineness of the ‘great awakening’ facilitated by President Trump (and his close associates). Every day, thousands of Americans achieve awareness of the unbelievable level of corruption in the political system. I have covered how, in the past, a number of politicians alluded to this concept of a deep state. Examples include President Eisenhower’s reference to the military–industrial complex and President Kennedy’s speech warning of 'secret societies' and a 'monolithic and ruthless conspiracy'. Shockingly, just this past Tuesday, Senator Rand Paul answered ‘absolutely’ when directly asked if a deep state exists.

For specific names of deep state activists, you can point to a former employee of both the CIA and FBI Philip Mudd who, in referring to the President, said they [the deep state] will ‘kill this guy’. Interestingly, Mr. Mudd is alleged to be a direct descendant of Samuel Mudd, an American physician who was imprisoned for conspiring with John Wilkes Booth in the assassination of President Abraham Lincoln. I suppose there is some genetic disposition within the Mudd family to overthrowing governments.

In January, President Trump referenced the ‘deep state’ in a tweet. But, in a speech last month at CPAC, he vaguely referred to ‘forces’ that don't have the people's best interest: 

‘We’re fighting a lot of forces.  They’re forces that are doing the wrong thing.  They’re just doing the wrong thing.  I don’t want to talk about what they have in mind.  But they do the wrong thing.  But we’re doing what’s good for our country for the long-term viability and survival.’

The President is most likely hinting at a much darker reality where his enemies are not simply part of rogue intelligence agencies. Perhaps, he is channeling the qanon posts, described by New York Magazine as: 

‘…someone calling themselves Q began posting a series of cryptic messages in a /pol/ thread titled “Calm Before the Storm” (assumedly in reference to that creepy Trump quote from early October). Q claimed to be a high-level government insider with Q clearance (hence the name) tasked with posting intel drops — which he, for some reason, called “crumbs” — straight to 4chan in order to covertly inform the public about POTUS’s master plan to stage a countercoup against members of the deep state.’

These posts have been widely mocked by mainstream media publications like Newsweek as ‘fake news’. Curiously, Newsweek did not receive a comment from the White House on a claim made by Alex Jones that he was told by them to start covering the qanon posts. As of today, there has been no public statement from the Trump administration on the authenticity of these qanon posts. The silence speaks for itself.

Markets in Turmoil – Can Cryptocurrencies Save the US from the Debt Bomb?

It is always amusing to hear people dismissively claim that Bitcoin is a ‘bubble’ or that it isn’t backed by anything. What most tend to overlook is that the ‘real bubble’ exists with all fiat currencies, which are all backed by nothing. As of this writing, the total cryptocurrency market cap is approximately $300 billion (down from last month’s high of around $800 billion). When compared to the global money supply and global debt markets, the cryptocurrency space is miniscule. As I’ve said a few months ago, the current system of central banking will end and the only remaining question is what will replace it.

There is no better example of a fiat currency bubble than the US dollar. While the tax cut just signed into law has provided immediate benefits to the US economy, few have attempted to address the enormous national debt burden.

Here are some basic facts on the US fiscal condition:

• Over $20.6 trillion (and rising) debt balance (in addition to the $46.7 trillion of unfunded liabilities which some say is closer to $210 trillion)
• Interest payments of over $400 billion per year even with interest rates on these payments at historical lows (approximately 2.3% in 2017)
• $666 billion deficit for fiscal year 2017, an increase of $80 billion over the previous year
• Revenues of approximately $3.3 trillion for fiscal year 2017
• Increased projected budget deficit of over $1 trillion in fiscal year 2019
• US Debt to GDP ratio (includes public and intra-governmental held debt) of over 100%

Historically, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to prevent inflation. For example, during the prior ‘tightening cycle’ (2004-2006), the fed funds rate was increased by 400 basis points (~1% - ~5%). Today, the current fed funds rate is 1.5%. A recent CNBC report forecast a 2.24% fed funds rate at the end of 2018, up about a quarter point from the prior survey. The Federal Reserve can in no way deviate from these projected increases. If it did, interest payments on newly issued debt and on maturing debt would skyrocket which would further exacerbate the national debt problem. Massive reductions in government expenditures to reduce the deficit would lead to societal chaos. Discounting some windfall capital recovery (not likely even from this executive order), the only way the US Treasury can realistically continue to pay interest on this massive debt is by keeping rates near historic lows with small yearly increases. Optimistically, low interest rates would enable the US to grow its way out of its debt. Perhaps, that is why the President has maintained such a close relationship with major banks (reversing his campaign promise). In December, the Trump administration waived punishment for these banks over prior crimes.

Last Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 2.845 percent, the highest since January 2014. Yields closed lower on Monday as the historic selloff in stocks sparked demand for low risk debt. Conversely, some have attributed the major drop in the stock market to long term concerns over bond yields. Since 2009, the Federal Reserve has engaged in massive money printing (i.e. QE1, QE2, etc.) to ‘stimulate the economy’. If this were sound monetary policy, Venezuela and Zimbabwe would be beacons of economic success (which they are not). The US is the beneficiary of the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. Multiple iterations of QE (money printing) have enabled the Federal Reserve to purchase treasuries and effectively keep interest rates low while capital has flowed into assets such as real estate. A future ‘black swan’ event (like the Chinese selling off their US treasury holdings or a bank run) may occur when bond yields rise suddenly. In that case there must be yet another iteration of QE.

So, we have established two points:

1. The US can only gradually raise the fed funds rate over the next three years.
2. The US must print money to remain solvent in case of rising bond yields.

Fundamentally, printing money to pay your expenses should be considered a credit event (default). There are times where a devaluation of a nation’s currency is necessary. One of the most egregious examples of this was in 1933 when President Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102 which required all in the US to exchange their gold for $20.67 per ounce. Over the next year, the president then raised the official gold price to $35 per ounce, effectively cutting 40% off the US dollar. There has been global discussion (primarily from China) of the US dollar’s demise as the world’s reserve currency. In the past, precious metals were the sole alternative to fiat currencies. Now, cryptocurrencies have emerged as a possible alternative. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu even stated in December that banks will eventually disappear due to blockchain technology.

Cryptocurrencies have exhibited massive volatility losing 30% of its combined value over the past 24 hours and 60% over the past month. Lately, there has been a slew of negative news in the cryptocurrency space. This past weekend, most major US credit card issuers including Bank of America, JP Morgan and Citigroup banned the use of their cards to buy Bitcoin or other digital currencies. Prepared testimony for Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chairmen was released yesterday and suggest that the US government could slap further regulations on cryptocurrencies in the near future.

Still, the unprecedented rise in cryptocurrency prices (part of the ongoing global currency reset) has enabled an effective stealth devaluation of the US dollar. There has also been evidence of positive benefits to Japan’s economy from cryptocurrencies. Nomura analysts estimate a wealth effect from unrealized gains on Bitcoin trading by Japanese investors and a potential boost to real GDP growth to Japan’s economy of about .3%.

One of the characteristics required for a cryptocurrency to be defined as money is to act as a medium of exchange. There have been all sorts of rumors that major Internet and traditional retailers will start accepting cryptocurrencies as payment in the US (they already do in Japan). Recently, Starbucks chairman Howard Schultz said he believes digital currency will catch on with consumers, though not necessarily Bitcoin. While there is plenty of speculative and unsupported euphoria, any chief executive of a public retail firm has a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to investigate the acceptance of other types of payment methods. As of a week ago, interest remained strong as over 1 million people joined a waitlist to register for cryptocurrency trading with Robinhood.

For a great perspective on the practical use of cryptocurrencies, I highly recommend watching Mike Maloney’s video on the crypto revolution. Note that there are other amazing technologies like holochain and hashgraph that may compliment or even compete with blockchain platforms. For those concerned about a future ban on cryptocurrencies, please watch this video from Andreas Antonopoulos (well-known speaker on bitcoin). An outright ban on cryptocurrencies in the US is highly unlikely. It would be a mistake to think the US government will accept some kind of market crash just to prevent a rise in cryptocurrency prices.  In addition to any economic ‘wealth effect’, the US economy can benefit from the efficiencies in industries that use blockchain technologies. One of those areas is social media where censorship issues with Facebook can be avoided. Steemit, a social media platform with virtual currency rewards that runs over the Steem blockchain, is an alternative that has garnered attention recently.