The Stock Market and the Election

I probably will not endorse any one candidate in the upcoming US election although I have strong feelings against one particular candidate. Nevertheless, I find it amusing that so many pundits pontificate on what factors will determine the election results. (We'll reserve the mainstream media's coverage of the election for another post.) There are 76 days to election day. Remember in 2008, the race between Barack Obama and John McCain was virtually deadlocked. After the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy (September 15) and subsequent banker bailout, the polls shifted and it was clear that Obama would win.

So, according to this chart (courtesy of ZeroHedge: Why Donald Trump Is Praying For A Market Crash), there exists a correlation between the stock market and the past 22 election results with an 86.4% accuracy rate.




With that in mind, Donald Trump has hinted at both an upcoming recession and a stock market downturn in a few prior interviews:

In a revealing interview, Trump predicts a ‘massive recession’ but intends to eliminate the national debt in 8 years, April 2, 2016

Trump Says It's Time To Sell Stocks, Warns Of "Very Scary Scenarios" For Investors, August 2, 2016

So, my question is does Donald Trump know something that we don't?